In its latest report, Mind the Gap: How Carbon Dioxide Removals Must Complement Deep Decarbonisation to Keep 1.5°C Alive, the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC), describes how carbon dioxide removals (CDR) alongside rapid and deep global decarbonisation can give the world a 50/50 chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
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The report confirms that all sectors of the economy can and must decarbonise by mid-century with big emission reductions in the 2020s. Cutting coal use by half and ending 70% of deforestation by 2030 are particularly important priorities. But even given the fastest feasible path of emissions reductions, the world will need at least 70 to 220 Gt of carbon removals between now and 2050 to limit cumulative net emissions to a level compatible with globally agreed climate objectives.
These removals could be achieved via a combination of Natural Climate Solutions (such as reforestation and improved soil management), Engineered solutions (for instance using direct air capture of CO2) and hybrid solutions (such as Bioenergy plus carbon capture and storage). NCS solutions will dominate in the early years but carry measurement and permanent risks which must be carefully managed; Engineered solutions are currently far more expensive, but costs can and must be reduced over time.
A feasible scenario suggests that from close to zero today, removals could reach 3.5 Gt per annum by 2030 and could deliver around 165 Gt of cumulative sequestration over the next 30 years.
A portfolio approach to CDR
No single CDR solution can be deployed in significant enough volumes to deliver the emissions removals required, and each entails different costs and risks. A portfolio approach is therefore required, with solutions playing vital and complementary roles.
Initially the bulk of investment must be focused on reforestation and delivering other NCS, alongside early scale-up support for engineered and hybrid solutions. In the 2030s and 2040s the portfolio is likely to shift towards hybrid and engineered solutions as these newer technologies scale, bringing down costs and increasing availability.
Closing the Gap
Removals will only occur if someone pays for them. A massive ramp up of financial support from both governments and corporates is needed to scale removals in the coming decades. Currently funding for emissions removal is very limited, less than $10 billion per year, with the voluntary carbon markets delivering just 10 megatons (Mt) per year of emissions removals. This is equivalent to less than 0.1% of global emissions.